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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 8-R.Rehkow punts 33 yards to LAC 34, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-32-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.06 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model