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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(:55) 8-R.Rehkow punts 64 yards to LAC 6, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 12-D.Davis to LAC 16 for 10 yards (26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.05 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model