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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 35

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins to LAC 27 for 8 yards (6-D.Perryman; 29-T.Still). FUMBLES (6-D.Perryman), RECOVERED by LAC-32-A.Gilman at LAC 26. 32-A.Gilman for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins to LAC 27 for 8 yards (29-T.Still). CIN-5-T.Higgins was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.65 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model