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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 8

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP