4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 4

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(5:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC-22-E.Molden was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model