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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Los Angeles Chargers
4th & 1 at the 1
Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 6
What Actually Happened
(4:38) 27-J.Dobbins right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.46 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.27 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.89 EP
KICK
+2.29 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT
+0.05 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
