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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Monday 2023-10-02 · 20:15 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

SEA
43.7%
NYG
56.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG defense: +0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Daniel Jones (NYG): -0.040 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG on 3 more days rest than SEA
  • SEA offense: -0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
NYG 24
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

SEA

Tre Brown CB Out Concussion
Artie Burns CB Out Hamstring
Coby Bryant CB Doubtful Toe
Charles Cross T Doubtful Toe
Evan Brown C Questionable Quadricep
Noah Fant TE Questionable Knee
Dre'Mont Jones DE Questionable Hip
Will Dissly TE Questionable Shoulder
Derick Hall LB Questionable Knee

NYG

Andrew Thomas T Out Hamstring
Saquon Barkley RB Doubtful Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 24
–
NYG 3

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:06 TD SEA (:06) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – NYG 0
  • Q2 03:10 FG NYG (3:10) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. SEA 7 – NYG 3
  • Q2 01:42 TD SEA (1:42) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-99-L.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on SEA-75-A.Bradford, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. SEA 13 – NYG 3
  • Q3 01:19 TD SEA (1:19) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 0-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Witherspoon at SEA 3. 21-D.Witherspoon for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – NYG 3
  • Q4 05:29 FG SEA (5:29) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 24 – NYG 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 83%

    (9:02) 8-D.Jones up the middle to SEA 27 for no gain (54-B.Wagner; 56-J.Brooks).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 17 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:27) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to NYG 35, Center-41-C.Stoll. 20-E.Gray MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 35, recovered by NYG-44-N.McCloud at NYG 33.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 11 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 24%

    (5:26) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to NYG 14, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 22-A.Jackson.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:01) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to SEA 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas. PENALTY on NYG-52-C.Coughlin, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 17.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 63 yards to NYG 2, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-28-K.Kelly.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 62%

    (3:10) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:08) 6-J.Gillan punts 61 yards to SEA 11, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%

    (9:07) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 26-Z.Charbonnet (41-M.McFadden).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 14 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:37) 6-J.Gillan punts 61 yards to SEA 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 31-D.Dallas to 50 for 23 yards (59-C.Kreiter). PENALTY on NYG-59-C.Kreiter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 67%

    (6:36) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 94%

    (2:46) 8-D.Jones scrambles right end to SEA 6 for 10 yards (20-J.Love).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 17-W.Robinson to NYG 48 for 6 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to NYG 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-42-D.Thomas.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (5:29) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 35 for -6 yards (10-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (10-U.Nwosu) [10-U.Nwosu], touched at NYG 36, recovered by NYG-75-J.Ezeudu at NYG 35.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 81%

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short right to 19-J.Bobo (98-D.Davidson).