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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 58

New York Giants 3 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(13:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 17-W.Robinson to NYG 48 for 6 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model