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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 59

New York Giants 3 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(3:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 35 for -6 yards (10-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (10-U.Nwosu) [10-U.Nwosu], touched at NYG 36, recovered by NYG-75-J.Ezeudu at NYG 35.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.95 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -2.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model