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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 63

New York Giants 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to SEA 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas. PENALTY on NYG-52-C.Coughlin, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 63, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model