Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 88

New York Giants 3 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 6-J.Gillan punts 61 yards to SEA 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 31-D.Dallas to 50 for 23 yards (59-C.Kreiter). PENALTY on NYG-59-C.Kreiter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.17 EP
67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 88, worth -5.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model