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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 15

Seattle Seahawks 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 26-Z.Charbonnet (41-M.McFadden).

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.00 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model