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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 16

Seattle Seahawks 21 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.34 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 16, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model