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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 27

New York Giants 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 8-D.Jones up the middle to SEA 27 for no gain (54-B.Wagner; 56-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.59 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model