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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to NYG 14, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 22-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model