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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 37

New York Giants 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.90 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model