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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 63 yards to NYG 2, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-28-K.Kelly.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.43 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model