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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2023-10-01 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

LA
54.2%
IND
45.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.175 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.014 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Anthony Richardson (IND) -0.052 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) -0.037 EPA/dropback (IND starting Anthony Richardson in place of Gardner Minshew)

Predicted Final Score

LA 23
–
IND 21
Projected margin: LA by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

LA

Alaric Jackson T Questionable Hamstring
John Johnson S Questionable Face
Tyler Higbee TE Questionable Achilles
Ben Skowronek WR Questionable Achilles

IND

Ryan Kelly C Out Concussion
Bernhard Raimann T Out Concussion
DeForest Buckner DT Questionable Groin
Sam Ehlinger QB Questionable right Shoulder
Quenton Nelson G Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 29
–
IND 23

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:38 TD LA (11:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – IND 0
  • Q1 03:43 TD LA (3:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – IND 0
  • Q2 12:56 FG LA (12:56) 8-B.Maher 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 17 – IND 0
  • Q2 05:53 FG LA (5:53) 8-B.Maher 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 20 – IND 0
  • Q3 07:22 FG LA (7:22) 8-B.Maher 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 23 – IND 0
  • Q3 05:37 TD IND (5:37) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep right to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-44-A.Witherspoon, Defensive Holding, declined. LA 23 – IND 6
  • Q4 11:49 TD IND (11:49) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – IND 14
  • Q4 02:00 TD IND (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 85-A.Ogletree for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – IND 21
  • Q5 05:55 TD LA (5:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-P.Nacua for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 29 – IND 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 12 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:28) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to LA 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Trammell to LA 30 for 18 yards (50-S.Olubi, 46-L.Rhodes). PENALTY on LA-59-T.Reeder, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at LA 12.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 76%

    (5:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-V.Jefferson to IND 16 for 16 yards (29-J.Brents).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 17 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 90%

    (12:56) 8-B.Maher 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:27) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to LA 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Trammell to LA 39 for 11 yards (46-L.Rhodes). PENALTY on LA-6-T.Tomlinson, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at LA 28.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 13 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 67%

    (5:53) 8-B.Maher 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 81%

    (1:50) 7-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:51) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to LA 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Trammell to LA 30 for 7 yards (85-A.Ogletree; 41-G.Stuard).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 76%

    (7:22) 8-B.Maher 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 77%

    (3:40) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete short left to 83-K.Granson.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 81%

    (14:20) 8-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:36) 42-E.Evans punts 40 yards to IND 17, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 91%

    (3:08) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left to 83-K.Granson ran ob at LA 4 for 17 yards (1-D.Kendrick).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:44) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to IND 22, Center-47-A.Ward. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 35 for 13 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 24-R.Freeman).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to LA 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Trammell to LA 28 for 8 yards (43-T.Denbow).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 25%

    (:11) 42-E.Evans punts 35 yards to IND 18, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.