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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 29

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 7-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.73 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model