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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 8 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(3:40) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete short left to 83-K.Granson.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP