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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 65

Indianapolis Colts 23 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to LA 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Trammell to LA 28 for 8 yards (43-T.Denbow).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.12 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 65, worth -2.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 23, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model