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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 53

Los Angeles Rams 23 – Indianapolis Colts 23

What Actually Happened

(:11) 42-E.Evans punts 35 yards to IND 18, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.31 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP