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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 32

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(5:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-V.Jefferson to IND 16 for 16 yards (29-J.Brents).

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.91 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model