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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 23 – Indianapolis Colts 23

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to IND 22, Center-47-A.Ward. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 35 for 13 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 24-R.Freeman).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.25 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -2.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model