Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to LA 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Trammell to LA 30 for 18 yards (50-S.Olubi, 46-L.Rhodes). PENALTY on LA-59-T.Reeder, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at LA 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.93 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model