Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to LA 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Trammell to LA 39 for 11 yards (46-L.Rhodes). PENALTY on LA-6-T.Tomlinson, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at LA 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model