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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 57

Los Angeles Rams 23 – Indianapolis Colts 15

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 42-E.Evans punts 40 yards to IND 17, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.28 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP