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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 32

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 8-B.Maher 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.84 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP