4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 36

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 8-B.Maher 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.05 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model