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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to LA 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Trammell to LA 30 for 7 yards (85-A.Ogletree; 41-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.97 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model