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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Monday 2023-09-18 · 20:15 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

CLE
35.5%
PIT
64.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.058 vs Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.158 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CLE 19
–
PIT 23
Projected margin: PIT by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CLE

Siaki Ika DT Questionable Foot
Amari Cooper WR Questionable Groin
Juan Thornhill S Questionable Calf

PIT

Diontae Johnson WR Out Hamstring
Anthony McFarland RB Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 22
–
PIT 26

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 15:00 TD PIT (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 56-A.Highsmith (39-M.Fitzpatrick) at CLE 30. 56-A.Highsmith for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 08:50 FG CLE (8:50) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – PIT 7
  • Q2 14:09 TD CLE (14:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 34-J.Ford for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – PIT 7
  • Q2 09:14 FG PIT (9:14) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. CLE 11 – PIT 10
  • Q2 06:16 TD PIT (6:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 14-G.Pickens for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Tomlinson]. CLE 11 – PIT 16
  • Q2 00:27 FG CLE (:27) 7-D.Hopkins 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 14 – PIT 16
  • Q3 11:51 FG PIT (11:51) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. CLE 14 – PIT 19
  • Q3 10:05 TD CLE (10:05) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 20-P.Strong left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 20 – PIT 19
  • Q4 07:06 TD PIT (7:06) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 13 for -7 yards (56-A.Highsmith). FUMBLES (56-A.Highsmith) [56-A.Highsmith], RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at CLE 16. 90-T.Watt for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 22 – PIT 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%

    (8:50) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 16 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 86%

    (6:42) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:25) 6-P.Harvin punts 55 yards to CLE 5, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 47%

    (:25) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 4-D.Watson left guard to PIT 42 for 1 yard (99-L.Ogunjobi, 90-T.Watt). Pittsburgh challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 4-D.Watson left guard to PIT 42 for 1 yard (99-L.Ogunjobi, 57-M.Adams). FUMBLES (57-M.Adams), RECOVERED by PIT-99-L.Ogunjobi at PIT 42.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 12 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 55%

    (11:27) 6-P.Harvin punts 31 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 12 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to PIT 47, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-C.Austin to CLE 39 for 14 yards (26-R.McLeod).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 70%

    (9:14) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:48) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 54 yards to PIT 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to PIT 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 19-C.Austin. PENALTY on CLE-28-M.Ford, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 32.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 52%

    (2:52) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback. PENALTY on PIT-83-Co.Heyward, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 20.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 63%

    (:27) 7-D.Hopkins 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 76%

    (11:51) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 34%

    (7:40) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 11 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 25%

    (4:08) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 9 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 52%

    (1:19) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 13 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to PIT 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:02) 6-P.Harvin punts 44 yards to CLE 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 31%

    (1:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.