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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 48

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 – Cleveland Browns 22

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.18 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model