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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 11

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.25 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model