4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 6-P.Harvin punts 55 yards to CLE 5, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.64 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model