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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 25

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.78 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model