4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 49

Cleveland Browns 22 – Pittsburgh Steelers 26

What Actually Happened

(1:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.08 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model