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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 25

Cleveland Browns 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.25 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model