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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(:25) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 4-D.Watson left guard to PIT 42 for 1 yard (99-L.Ogunjobi, 90-T.Watt). Pittsburgh challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 4-D.Watson left guard to PIT 42 for 1 yard (99-L.Ogunjobi, 57-M.Adams). FUMBLES (57-M.Adams), RECOVERED by PIT-99-L.Ogunjobi at PIT 42.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.63 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model