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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 37

Cleveland Browns 11 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

What Actually Happened

(:27) 7-D.Hopkins 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.62 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model