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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 22 – Pittsburgh Steelers 19

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.06 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model