Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 11 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to PIT 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 19-C.Austin. PENALTY on CLE-28-M.Ford, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.30 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model