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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 22 – Pittsburgh Steelers 26

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to PIT 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.08 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model