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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2022-01-09 · 16:25 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow Spread 16.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NYJ
27.4%
BUF
72.6%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.138 vs Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.196 EPA/dropback
  • BUF offense: +0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Wind 19 mph
  • NYJ offense: -0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 18
–
BUF 26
Projected margin: BUF by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

NYJ

Braxton Berrios WR Doubtful Quadricep

BUF

Efe Obada DE Out Ankle
Emmanuel Sanders WR Doubtful Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 10
–
BUF 27

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:50 TD BUF (10:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-Qu.Williams]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYJ 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 02:36 FG BUF (2:36) 2-T.Bass 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. NYJ 0 – BUF 10
  • Q2 03:59 TD NYJ (3:59) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 88-K.Cole for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – BUF 10
  • Q2 00:04 FG BUF (:04) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. NYJ 7 – BUF 13
  • Q3 04:00 FG NYJ (4:00) 15-E.Pineiro 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 10 – BUF 13
  • Q4 08:24 TD BUF (8:24) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – BUF 19
  • Q4 03:58 TD BUF (3:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-D.Singletary for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – BUF 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (9:11) 7-B.Mann punts 59 yards to BUF 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 85%

    (2:36) 2-T.Bass 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:22) 7-B.Mann punt is BLOCKED by 47-C.Lewis, Center-42-T.Hennessy, RECOVERED by BUF-46-J.Johnson at NYJ 35. 46-J.Johnson to NYJ 35 for no gain (81-T.Kroft).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 74%

    (13:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 13-G.Davis.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.79 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (8:15) 3-M.Haack punts 42 yards to NYJ 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-25-T.Jones.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:17) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to BUF 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 33 for 5 yards (34-J.Hardee, 43-D.Phillips). PENALTY on BUF-33-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 28.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:31) 3-M.Haack punts 21 yards to BUF 45, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-44-T.Matakevich.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 44%

    (3:59) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 88-K.Cole for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (3:09) 3-M.Haack punts 22 yards to NYJ 44, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:52) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to BUF 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 16 for 3 yards (29-R.Wildgoose).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:44) 7-B.Mann punts 54 yards to BUF 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 28 for 17 yards (1-K.Nacua).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 22%

    (11:07) 3-M.Haack punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:05) 7-B.Mann punts 57 yards to BUF 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 13 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:42) 3-M.Haack punts 53 yards to NYJ 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 88-K.Cole to NYJ 32 for 3 yards (33-S.Neal, 25-T.Jones).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:35) 7-B.Mann punts 60 yards to BUF 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:38) Fumbled snap. 3-M.Haack to BUF 9 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BUF 11. 3-M.Haack punts 7 yards to BUF 29. 9-J.White to BUF 27 for 2 yards (9-A.Smith; 46-J.Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-53-T.Dodson, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 27.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 69%

    (4:00) 15-E.Pineiro 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 13 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%

    (:41) 3-M.Haack punts 43 yards to NYJ 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-25-T.Jones.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:45) 7-B.Mann punts 53 yards to BUF 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 49 for 9 yards (43-D.Phillips; 1-K.Nacua).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:36) 7-B.Mann punts 28 yards to NYJ 48, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-48-N.Bawden.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:20) 7-B.Mann punts 41 yards to BUF 44, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.