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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 61

New York Jets 7 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to BUF 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 16 for 3 yards (29-R.Wildgoose).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.69 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model