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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 45

Buffalo Bills 13 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(:41) 3-M.Haack punts 43 yards to NYJ 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-25-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.77 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model