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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 78

Buffalo Bills 13 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(5:38) Fumbled snap. 3-M.Haack to BUF 9 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BUF 11. 3-M.Haack punts 7 yards to BUF 29. 9-J.White to BUF 27 for 2 yards (9-A.Smith; 46-J.Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-53-T.Dodson, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.94 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 78, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP