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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 3-M.Haack punts 42 yards to NYJ 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-25-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.91 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.79 EP