Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 55

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(:22) 7-B.Mann punt is BLOCKED by 47-C.Lewis, Center-42-T.Hennessy, RECOVERED by BUF-46-J.Johnson at NYJ 35. 46-J.Johnson to NYJ 35 for no gain (81-T.Kroft).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.59 EP
59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -2.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model