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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 18 at the 76

New York Jets 7 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 7-B.Mann punts 60 yards to BUF 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.09 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model