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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 31

New York Jets 7 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 15-E.Pineiro 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.12 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model